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Morning Comments 10/20/11

Thu, 20 Oct 2011 14:14:18 GMT

'Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-3'4	908'0	908'6	896'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	+2'4	708'0	708'6	699'2
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+2'6	622'2	623'2	613'4
Corn Dec'11	+0'4	639'0	639'0	632'0
Soybeans Nov'11	-1'4	1223'4	1226'2	1206'6

Grains-

Once again, grain calls are mixed this morning, with corn called steady, wheat a little better, and beans a little easier. Macro markets are mostly a negative influence this morning, especially gold.

The big news is the apparent capture or killing of Moammar Gadafi. I wonder if they got his brothers Curlymar and Larrymar as well? News out of Europe seems to go back and forth on the big Summit meeting coming up this weekend. This may cause some evening up of positions much like what we see before a USDA crop report. Export sales this morning were outstanding for corn at 69.4 million bushels ( including last week's China business ), Beans at 22m.b. ( with 300,000 tons to China ), and wheat a disappointing 14.7 m.b. After yesterday`s sell off, grains look a little vulnerable.

Tim Roth

Morning Comments 10/19/11

Wed, 19 Oct 2011 13:59:41 GMT

'Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-3'6	902'6	910'0	902'6
KC Wheat Dec'11	+4'4	716'0	717'6	712'0
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+4'6	630'0	631'6	626'2
Corn Dec'11	+2'0	646'0	650'0	644'0
Soybeans Nov'11	-0'0	1250'6	1256'0	1238'4

Grains-

Opening indications for grain markets this morning are mixed, with corn and wheat markets called slightly higher, and beans slightly lower. Grains, as they have been prone to do of late, will likely take their cue from the macro markets, which are mixed this morning as well. End users are still having a difficult time sourcing beans, as farmers are tight holders of beans, looking for higher prices. Weather in South America looks ideal at this point in time for planting.

Tim Roth

Morning Comments 10/18/11

Tue, 18 Oct 2011 13:52:18 GMT

'Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-9'2	886'4	897'4	886'4
KC Wheat Dec'11	-8'0	706'2	716'4	703'0
Chi Wheat Dec'11	-9'0	615'2	627'4	614'0
Corn Dec'11	-9'2	631'2	640'0	631'2
Soybeans Nov'11	-22'6	1230'2	1253'0	1226'4

Grains-

Opening grain calls, based on night markets, are lower to sharply lower. Corn -8-10, beans -20-25, and wheat -8-10. The China factor seemed to be in play overnight, as indications of an economic slowdown weighed on grain prices throughout the night session. Also, the U.S. dollar is firmer and equities are mixed. Harvest made good progress last week, with corn 47% done vs. the 5 year average of 41%, and beans 69% harvested vs. the 5 year average of 61%. Winter wheat planting advanced to 73% planted, close to the 5 year average. We could still see some harvest pressure in corn and beans after the huge rally of last week.

Tim Roth

Morning Comments 10/13/11

Thu, 13 Oct 2011 14:03:29 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-4'6	899'0	906'4	891'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	-4'0	707'0	713'4	703'0
Chi Wheat Dec'11	-1'6	625'0	630'4	618'4
Corn Dec'11	-7'6	633'0	643'0	631'4
Soybeans Nov'11	-8'0	1231'4	1241'2	1230'6

Grains-

Opening indications for the grain markets this a.m. are weaker, with corn called 6-8 lower, same for beans, and wheat down just 1-3. Macro markets are the lead indicator this morning, with the equities markets on the defensive, and the dollar stronger. Weekly export sales won`t be released until Friday because of the Columbus Day Holiday. We view today`s grain markets closes as an important indicator of near term direction.

Tim Roth

Morning Comments 10/12/11

Wed, 12 Oct 2011 14:10:17 GMT

For analysis of today's report please sign up for our free two-week research trial.

http://www.mastelgrain.com/Contact-Us

Morning Comments 10/11/11

Tue, 11 Oct 2011 14:17:42 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+5'2	939'4	941'4	933'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	+5'2	691'2	693'6	611'0
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+4'0	615'4	618'6	611'0
Corn Dec'11	+1'2	606'2	609'4	599'6
Soybeans Nov'11	+13'2	1190'6	1192'4	1174'4

Grains-

Opening calls this morning for grains are firmer, with corn called 1-2 higher, wheat 3-5 higher, and beans up 10-12. Beans were quite strong overnight on talk of renewed Chinese buying. Outside markets are mixed thus far, which should promote an evening up kind of day for grains ahead of tomorrow mornings` USDA crop report. For a complete rundown of industry crop estimates and outlook, readers should sign up for a free trial of MF Global`s research through this website.

Tim Roth

Closing Comments 10/10/11

Mon, 10 Oct 2011 20:14:13 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+14'6	934'2	945'0	919'2
KC Wheat Dec'11	+1'4	686'0	703'2	683'4
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+4'0	611'4	629'0	606'2
Corn Dec'11	+5'0	605'0	618'4	598'4
Soybeans Nov'11	+19'2	1177'4	1193'0	1158'2

Grains-

In grain markets today, corn continued a slow march upward, soybeans finally posted a somewhat impressive daily gain, and wheat markets ended the day positive with yet another session lead by the Minneapolis December wheat contract. Volume was low across the board and will remain so until Wednesday's crop report. The U.S. Dollar index and supportive outer-market trade were the main reason for today's performance.

Domingo Williams

Morning Comments 10/10/11

Mon, 10 Oct 2011 13:55:57 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+12'6	932'2	932'2	919'2
KC Wheat Dec'11	+13'0	697'4	700'0	683'4
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+13'2	620'6	628'2	606'2
Corn Dec'11	+10'2	610'2	612'4	598'4
Soybeans Nov'11	+26'4	1184'6	1188'0	1158'2

Grains-

Grain markets look to open much stronger this morning, with beans leading the parade. Opening calls are corn +10, beans + 25-27, and wheat + 12-14. Not a lot of grain news, more of a macro influence. Equities are trading much stronger and the dollar is sharply lower this morning. Apparently the Europeans have come up with a bailout plan for Belgium's Dexia, so all is right with the world again, and so the "risk on " trade is on again. At least for today.

Tim Roth

Closing Comments 10/7/11

Fri, 07 Oct 2011 19:52:11 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+24'4	919'4	937'4	896'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	-13'2	684'4	703'2	681'2
Chi Wheat Dec'11	-8'4	607'4	623'0	606'0
Corn Dec'11	-5'4	600'0	607'4	596'2
Soybeans Nov'11	-5'4	1158'2	1170'0	1152'2

Grains-

Grains traded mostly lower today on below average volume. The exception was Minneapolis wheat, which settled 24 1/2 cents higher on the day as concerns over production continue to cause prices to surge skyward.

The Minneapolis December contract continues to display big premiums over deferred months and on intermarket spreads. The volatility seen in MWZ1 is substantial. Due to the high protein nature of this year's HRS crop commercials will be reluctant to deliver wheat against the contract's 13% protein specification. With this in mind an inverse carry structure is expected to persist until end-users can find an alternative for hard-to-source spring wheat. Technically, MW looks strong as well. Yesterday MWZ1 closed above the 50-day and 100-day MA's and also appears to have broken out of a consolidation area. Today confirmed those moves.

MWZ1, Daily Chart

In corn, traders are waiting for the next Wednesday's USDA report. Analyst's are releasing their yield estimates with the average coming in around 148.1 bpa, with production estimated to be 12.471 bil bushels. The USDA's September production number was 12.497 bil bushels. CZ1 looks to have found its happy place around $6.00 on the chart for now, and may trade in a range between $6.15 and $5.75 until we get more information next week.

Beans have also found support, testing $11.52 a couple times in SX1, but they appear to have less bounce than corn.

Domingo Williams

Morning Comments 10/6/11

Thu, 06 Oct 2011 13:45:39 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+12'2	888'6	895'0	878'4
KC Wheat Dec'11	+7'2	707'0	715'6	699'6
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+7'6	633'0	639'6	623'0
Corn Dec'11	+4'4	610'0	617'0	604'0
Soybeans Nov'11	+11'4	1175'2	1182'6	1158'4

Grains-

Opening grain calls are higher across the board, with corn + 3-4, beans +10-12, and wheat +6-8. Outside markets are mixed, but the US dollar is firmer this morning, so be cautious about how much strength or follow-through the grains will exhibit during our day session. Weekly Export sales were impressive today, with corn at 50+m.b., beans at 25+m.b., and wheat at 16m.b. These are collectively the best sales we`ve seen in awhile and should confirm that lower prices are bringing some demand back to the grain markets.

Tim Roth

Closing Comments 10/5/11

Wed, 05 Oct 2011 19:52:46 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+13'6	876'4	878'2	862'6
KC Wheat Dec'11	+13'2	699'6	706'2	689'6
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+21'2	625'2	628'0	607'2
Corn Dec'11	+17'6	605'4	607'6	591'0
Soybeans Nov'11	+3'6	1163'6	1174'0	1161'0

Grains-

Grains took a cue from a strong close in the outside markets yesterday and follow through strength last night and today. Amongst factors such as a lower dollar and strong oil, production concerns and export demand have returned to the forefront at the current price levels. Looking at the corn and wheat charts it seems both have made a bottom for the time being. Beans on the other hand still remain technically weak, but just like the other two contracts, are majorly oversold and look to have found some support for the time being. We feel there is a story for higher grain prices with regard to the current supply situation, but a rally maybe be difficult to sustain if exogenous economic issues continue to roil world markets.

Domingo Williams

Morning Comments 10/5/11

Wed, 05 Oct 2011 14:04:15 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+4'0	866'6	870'0	864'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	+9'2	695'6	697'0	689'6
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+11'0	615'0	615'4	607'2
Corn Dec'11	+9'2	597'0	598'2	591'0
Soybeans Nov'11	+12'6	1172'6	1174'0	1161'6

Grains-

Opening grain calls are higher across the board. Corn + 8-10, beans + 12-14, and wheat + 10-12. We saw a late day turn around rally in the equities market yesterday, which in turn broke the U.S. dollar, which in turn rallied most commodity markets last night. If this sounds all too familiar, that`s because it is. Grains, equities, and currencies are joined at the hip! Trade accordingly.

Tim Roth

Closing Comments 10/3/11

Mon, 03 Oct 2011 20:18:53 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-7'0	885'2	894'4	862'4
KC Wheat Dec'11	-2'0	702'0	710'6	695'0
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+10'2	619'4	623'0	596'6
Corn Dec'11	-0'0	592'4	598'4	572'2
Soybeans Nov'11	-1'4	1177'4	1189'6	1162'0

Grains-

Two-sided trade was featured in grains today. The lack of direction makes it difficult to call this a bottom. The complex did manage to decouple from the dollar(positive) and the stock market(negative), and posted a rally from the lows mid-morning. Overall I wouldn't say it was a strong performance. We are calling $5.50 support in corn, there is a 6 cent gap at $11.50 on the SX1 daily chart that should be filled, and WZ1 poked through the $6.00 mark briefly today, but closed better. Minneapolis intermarkets corrected today, but only gave up a portion of Friday's huge gains on much lighter volume. All in all today's price action seemed corrective across the board.

Domingo Williams

Closing Comments 9/30/11

Fri, 30 Sep 2011 20:16:54 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-3'2	892'2	923'0	862'4
KC Wheat Dec'11	-36'0	704'0	747'6	698'0
Chi Wheat Dec'11	-45'0	609'2	661'4	605'0
Corn Dec'11	-40'0	592'4	636'0	592'4
Soybeans Nov'11	-51'0	1179'0	1238'6	1175'0

Grains-

Big surprises in grains today! USDA September corn stocks came in a whopping 164 mil bu. greater than expectations (1.128 bil bus.). This resulted in limit down offers most of the day with a brief bounce here and there. Sources say synthetics went as low as $5.86 in the last minutes of trade. Needless to say, the chart looks awful now. No matter how you draw it, trend line support has been destroyed. Technically there is nothing keeping corn from going lower on the daily, weekly, or monthly charts except being oversold. Fundamentally speaking, these levels have created demand in the recent past, but that was also mid-summer weather market with an up-trending chart and a world economy that wasn't worried about whether they could pay the light bill. The game has changed a bit since then.

For beans, read previous paragraph. Soy Stocks: 215 mil bus.

In wheat, HRS took center stage with the lowest spring wheat production number since the 07/08 season (ruh roh). Trading in MWZ1 was a true rollercoaster ride. The contract traded as low as 32.75 cent lower early in the day session and as high as 27.5 cents higher just prior to the close. MWZ1 went on to settle 10 cents lower at $8.92. In addition to this wild flat price action, Minneapolis made huge gains vs. the other two wheats. MWZ1 gained 29.25 cent on WZ1 and 32.75 cents on KWZ1. Technically speaking MW looks to be the only grain worth owning right now, and it seems to have a story behind it. With the MW Z/H trading 45 inverse and over 15,000 OI in MWZ still, there is plenty of upside left in this thing. Relative to other grains at least.

Domingo Williams

Morning Comments 9/30/11

Fri, 30 Sep 2011 13:53:30 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+0'4	896'0	900'4	893'2
KC Wheat Dec'11	+4'4	744'4	747'6	740'4
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+0'6	655'0	661'4	651'6
Corn Dec'11	-4'0	628'4	636'0	626'6
Soybeans Nov'11	-4'6	1225'2	1238'6	1223'6

Grains-

This morning's USDA quarterly stocks report reminds me of that classic Ronald Reagan line from the 1980's "Well there you go again". The USDA found an extra 200 million bushels of corn, which, coupled with a neutral soybean number and a slightly negative all wheat number will likely take the grain markets down hard today. As we look around this morning we don`t see anything positive in the macro markets that will alter the grain outlook for today. The stocks numbers are as follows:

· Corn 1,128 m.b. ( avg. guess 962m.b.)

· Soybeans 215 m.b. ( avg. guess 225 m.b.)

· Wheat 2,150 m.b. ( avg. guess 2,046 m. b.)

On another note, HRS production came in at 405 m.b. We see this as bullish, but it will be difficult to decouple from the rest of the complex. Expect to see Minneapolis gain in inter-markets though. Look for corn to open down 25 to 30 lower and the rest to follow.

Tim Roth

Closing Comments 9/29/11

Thu, 29 Sep 2011 19:49:15 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+34'2	895'4	904'0	860'6
KC Wheat Dec'11	+13'2	740'0	743'2	718'4
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+15'4	654'2	656'2	627'2
Corn Dec'11	+1'6	632'4	638'2	623'0
Soybeans Nov'11	+6'4	1230'0	1238'0	1209'2

Grains-

Grains rallied back today after posting early losses in overnight trade. Minneapolis Wheat lead the pack higher with December spring wheat futures closing a sizeable 34'2 cents higher on the day in anticipation of a bullish production number tomorrow. Soybeans made a short-term bottom today making new lows overnight, but closing 6'4 cents higher on the day. Corn had the least conviction throughout the day, and featured two-sided trade until the last hour of the session. Apparently everyone trading corn is in their happy place already.

There was also a plethora of positive macro news that came out this morning that helped stocks early on, but as we approach the end of the trading day stocks and crude oil have began to slide. Germany voted to support expansion of the EFSF this morning , which was expected. Initial jobless claims can in 29,000 lower than expectations at 391,000, and 2nd quarter GDP was revised up .3% to 1.3%.

Domingo Williams

Closing Comments 9/28/11

Wed, 28 Sep 2011 19:12:46 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-8'0	861'2	871'4	850'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	-16'2	726'6	751'2	724'2
Chi Wheat Dec'11	-19'4	638'6	657'4	635'0
Corn Dec'11	-21'4	630'6	650'6	628'6
Soybeans Nov'11	-39'4	1223'4	1261'2	1221'2

Grains-

Grains took a hit today after traders once again started worrying about a slowing world economy. The anticipation of Friday's grains stock report may allow be discouraging buyers to enter the market until the U.S.'s grain supply picture is more clear. Analysts expect Corn stocks to increase 44 mil bushels to 964 mil bushels, Soybean stocks to remain unchanged at 225 mil bushels, and wheat to decline 27 mil bushels to 2,062 mil bushel according to MF Global Research.

Domingo Williams

Morning Comments 9/28/11

Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:06:05 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-10'2	859'0	869'2	859'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	-6'2	746'6	751'0	743'4
Chi Wheat Dec'11	-6'6	651'4	657'4	645'0
Corn Dec'11	-7'0	645'2	650'6	642'2
Soybeans Nov'11	-9'0	1254'0	1261'2	1246'0

Grains-

Opening grain calls are lower, with corn and wheat both called down 6-7, and soybeans down 7-9. The Macro markets are mixed this morning, but mostly supportive, with gold and silver and equities trading higher, while the negative influence would be the stronger US dollar.

Anyone trading corn needs to remember that this afternoon we get the USDA quarterly Hog report, which is very important for corn usage.

Average guesses for the report are: All Hogs 100.5%, Kept for breeding 100.1%, and kept for marketing 100.5%

Tim Roth

Closing Comments 9/27/11

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 19:55:32 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	-0'6	869'2	884'6	866'4
KC Wheat Dec'11	+9'0	753'0	760'6	742'6
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+10'0	658'2	670'0	650'2
Corn Dec'11	+4'2	652'2	666'2	646'0
Soybeans Nov'11	+3'2	1263'0	1278'6	1259'0

Grains-

Grain markets once again took their direction from the Macro markets and the on again-off again Risk on mentality. A weaker U.S. greenback and much stronger than expected equities markets seemed to give bulls a little bit of life today, or at least get them off life support.

Basis levels on most grains were also better, which may have helped sustain some of today`s rally. Having said that, we did finish in the lower half of today`s ranges, which doesn`t usually bode well for follow through buying. Keep an eye on Europe.

Tim Roth

Morning Comments 9/27/11

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 14:16:51 GMT

Contract	Net Chg	Last	High	Low
Mpls Wheat Dec'11	+6'6	876'6	880'6	867'0
KC Wheat Dec'11	+8'0	752'0	752'6	742'6
Chi Wheat Dec'11	+14'4	662'6	664'0	651'4
Corn Dec'11	+14'4	662'4	663'0	651'0
Soybeans Nov'11	+14'4	1274'2	1275'4	1259'0

Grains-

Opening grain calls are 13-15 higher for wheat, 13-15 higher for corn and 13-15 for beans. The complex is moving in step with the rest of the capital markets as stocks are up over 2% and oil is up almost 4%. Demand for U.S. grains is expected to be renewed after being routed the past three weeks. Traders are still watching the European debt situation which may cause a sell off if new developments continue to be negative. Harvest progress is in line for Corn and Soybeans according to the USDA Monday.

Domingo Williams